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2018 Survey of Capital Market Assumptions

8/24/2018

 
At Horizon Actuarial, we are actuaries, not investment professionals.  Therefore, when developing assumptions as to what returns a pension plan’s assets might be expected to earn in the future, we look to our colleagues in the investment advisory community.  Each year, we survey different investment advisors and ask them to provide their “capital market assumptions” – their expectations for future risk and returns for different asset classes in which pension funds commonly invest.

The information gathered from this survey can help answer the commonly-asked question: “Are my plan’s investment return assumptions reasonable?”  Of course, there are many factors to consider when evaluating a plan’s investment return assumptions, such as its asset allocation and the maturity of its participant population.  Any of these factors can make the expected return for one plan very different from others.  Therefore, this report does not opine on the reasonableness of any one plan’s investment return assumptions.  Nevertheless, we hope this report will be a useful resource for trustees, actuaries, and investment professionals alike.

Horizon Actuarial sincerely thanks the 34 investment advisors who participated in the 2018 edition of this survey.

The report on the results of the 2018 Survey can be viewed below.
2018 Survey of Capital market assumptions
This is the seventh edition of the survey for which we have published a report. Prior editions can be found below:
2017 Survey
2014 survey
2016 Survey
2013 survey
2015 survey
2012 survey

The Impact of Alternative Discount Rates on Multiemployer Pension Plan Funding

6/25/2018

 
 ​The Joint Select Committee on Solvency of Multiemployer Plans (the “Committee”) was formed in Congress in February 2018 to address the issues facing multiemployer plans today. The Committee is comprised of eight members each from the House and the Senate, has equal representation from Democrats and Republicans, and is slated to propose legislation by November 30, 2018.
 
While the looming insolvencies of plans in critical & declining status and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) have received most of the headlines, the Committee is also considering measures that would impact all plans – even healthy plans in the green zone. 
 
One of the measures under consideration is to mandate the use of discount rates based on corporate bond or treasury yields for minimum funding purposes. In our view, such a measure would dramatically overstate pension costs and is not in any way appropriate for multiemployer pension plan funding. 
 
In order to educate lawmakers on the devastating consequences this action would have for nearly all multiemployer plans, we prepared the following report and handout.
Discount rate report
One-Page Summary handout

​As detailed in the report, the use of alternative discount rates would drastically increase unfunded liabilities, contribution requirements, and contribution volatility. The impact would be significant, and would likely lead to further destabilization of the entire multiemployer system.
 
Please contact your Horizon Actuarial consultant for more information on the report, the Committee, or how this may affect your pension fund.

Inventory of Construction Industry Plans: Fifth Edition

4/13/2018

 
The Mechanical Contractors Association of America, Inc. (MCAA) and Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC have partnered to build an inventory of historical data for multiemployer pension plans in the construction industry.

The purpose of this inventory is to summarize and analyze key trends in plan demographics, cash flows, investments, funding, and costs over a ten-year period, from 2006 through 2015. By analyzing these trends, we can better understand how these construction industry plans have evolved over the past decade and where they may be headed in the future.  This report also examines plan investment fees and operating expenses for construction industry plans. If you are a plan trustee, you may find this section of the report useful as a comparison tool.

As an appendix, the report  provides detailed results by trade within the construction industry, as well as a separate section containing exhibits specific to plans co-sponsored by MCAA employers and the Plumbers and Pipefitters.  This report also provides a listing of all of the construction industry plans included in the inventory. If you are an employer participating in one or more of these plans, the information in this listing will help you comply with the new multiemployer plan disclosures required by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).

The report can be viewed below or on MCAA's website.
inventory of construction industry pension plans:  fifth edition

Horizon Actuarial Services Combines with Crews MacQuarrie & Associates

4/5/2018

 
Combination will build stronger presence throughout the United States
 
Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC (Horizon Actuarial) today announced it is combining with Crews MacQuarrie & Associates, Inc. (CMA). Both firms provide actuarial and consulting services to multiemployer plans.
 
The transaction is scheduled to close on July 1, 2018, at which time the shareholders and other professionals of CMA will officially become part of Horizon Actuarial. The combined firm will be called Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC. 

Horizon Actuarial will now have outstanding depth of actuarial and consulting resources for both pension and health and welfare plans on both the east and west coasts, serving clients throughout the U.S.
 
“Both firms have a stellar reputation for providing outstanding service,” said Stan Goldfarb, Managing Consultant, Actuary, and co-founder of Horizon Actuarial. “This combination is a very good match. It will help strengthen the services we deliver to our clients and give both firms expanded reach in new geographic areas.”
 
The combination adds three offices and represents approximately a 20% increase in associates for Horizon Actuarial. Both firms have strong reputations in the multiemployer community of high quality work and exceptionally talented teams of associates.
 
The principals of CMA approached Horizon Actuarial three years ago about the potential for a combination. “We believed then, as we do now, that this combination is in the best interest of our valued employees and the clients we serve,” said Gerry Crews, Principal of CMA. “We never considered any firm other than Horizon Actuarial because of its reputation and our solid belief that both firms possess an uncompromising commitment to our associates and our clients.”
 
About Horizon Actuarial Services
Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC is a leading consulting firm that specializes in providing innovative solutions to multiemployer benefit plans. The firm proudly serves pension and health and welfare plans in various industries, including construction, trucking, professional sports, hospitality, entertainment, retail food, and communication.
 
Horizon Actuarial was created in October of 2007, when Watson Wyatt Worldwide, a leading multinational consulting firm, announced that it was exiting the multiemployer and Taft-Hartley plan consulting business. Watson Wyatt spun off its multiemployer business to a new company – Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC. Three Watson Wyatt pension actuaries, Stan Goldfarb, Larry Weitzner, and Cary Franklin, were the founding owners of the new firm. The firm’s three principal offices are in Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C.
 
About Crews MacQuarrie & Associates
Crews MacQuarrie & Associates, Inc. provides consulting and actuarial services to multiemployer benefit plans in the retail food, wholesale food, commercial real estate, hotel, gaming, technology, and soft drink industries.
 
Headquartered in Irvine, California, Crews MacQuarrie & Associates (CMA) was formed in 2002 by consultant Gerald Crews and consulting actuary Wade MacQuarrie.
 
Contact: Mark Lewis, COO/CFO | Horizon Actuarial | 678.317.4126 | mark.lewis@horizonactuarial.com

Congratulations to Heather Ray and Ron Stonehill

3/14/2018

 
Horizon Actuarial would like to congratulate the following associates who recently earned the actuarial designations shown below:

Heather Ray: Associate of the Society of Actuaries (ASA).
Ron Stonehill: Enrolled Actuary (EA).

Congratulations to Heather and Ron on these great accomplishments!

Establishment of Joint Committee on Solvency of Multiemployer Pension Plans

2/9/2018

 
On February 9, 2018, President Trump signed the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 into law. While the primary purpose of the legislation was to fund the federal government through March 23, 2018, the Act also provided for the establishment of a joint committee tasked with improving the solvency of multiemployer pension plans and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC).
 
The joint committee will be composed of 16 members – 8 from each chamber of Congress – and will include an equal number of Democrats and Republicans.  The legislation requires that the committee hold at least 5 public meetings or hearings, including 3 public hearings. Ultimately, the committee must vote on (I) a report detailing its findings and recommendations, and (II) proposed legislation to carry out its recommendations by November 30, 2018. 
 
The legislation also outlines procedures for an expedited vote in the Senate to occur no later than the last day of the current congressional term (January 3, 2019).
 
Please stay tuned for more on this developing story and contact your Horizon Actuarial consultant for more information on how this may affect your pension fund.

Temporary Suspension of Three Health Taxes Created Under the Affordable Care Act

1/29/2018

 
President Trump signed a short-term spending bill into law on January 22, 2018 after its passage in the House and Senate. While the primary purpose of the bill was to end the Federal government shutdown and fund government operations through February 8, 2018, the bill also included several provisions related to broader health policy:
 
A.  The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) is extended for six years.  Federal funding had previously ceased on September 30, 2017.
 
B.  Three health taxes created under the Affordable Care Act are temporarily suspended or delayed:
 
1.  Excise Tax on High-Cost Health Coverage:
The effective date of the 40% excise tax on health coverage exceeding certain thresholds (commonly referred to as the Cadillac Tax) is postponed from January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022.  The multiemployer threshold for computing the excise tax was set at $27,500 per year based on a January 1, 2018 effective date and is expected to be adjusted for inflation.
 
Both fully insured and self-funded health funds, including retiree only funds, are subject to this excise tax.  Projected retiree medical liabilities that included this tax for 2020 and 2021 will now be lower, as the tax amounts for these years will now be removed from the liability calculation.
 
2.  Health Insurer Fee for Fully Insured Plans:
This bill suspends the insurer tax for calendar year 2019.  The insurer fee, which began in 2014, was temporarily suspended in 2017 before being re-implemented for 2018.  As a result, fully insured funds with 2019 renewals should see lower premium levels than they would otherwise have seen. 
 
3.  Medical Device Tax:
The 2.3% medical device excise tax began on January 1, 2013 and is imposed on manufacturers and importers of certain medical devices. The tax was suspended for 2016 and 2017 and was slated to return for 2018.  This bill further suspends the tax for calendar years 2018 and 2019.

Congratulations to Michael Hammer and Nick Kingsley

12/29/2017

 
Horizon Actuarial would like to congratulate the following associates who recently earned the actuarial designations shown below:

Michael Hammer: Associate of the Society of Actuaries (ASA).
Nick Kingsley: Associate of the Society of Actuaries (ASA).

Congratulations to Michael and Nick on these great accomplishments!

Funding the Pension Promise: An Actuarial Perspective

10/18/2017

 
​The Trustee Handbook: A Guide to Labor-Management Employee Benefit Plans, published in 2017 by the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans, includes a chapter on funding the pension promise from an actuarial perspective, written by Cary Franklin of Horizon Actuarial.
 
The chapter is a valuable resource for any Trustee seeking to better understand the actuary’s role in determining how pension plans are funded.  It also includes information about the various federal laws that provide the legal framework for multiemployer pension plan funding.
 
A copy of “Funding the Pension: An Actuarial Perspective” can be downloaded via the link below.
Funding the Pension Promise: An Actuarial PerspectivE
​The excerpted chapter was reproduced with permission from the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans (www.ifebp.org).  Copies of the entire book are available for purchase online, or by calling (888) 334-3327, option 4.

IFEBP 2017 Las Vegas: Horizon Actuarial Speakers

9/27/2017

 
Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC is pleased to announce that eight of our consultants will be presenting at the 63rd Annual Conference of the International Foundation of Employee Benefits Plans (IFEBP).  The Annual Conference will be held from Sunday, October 22 through Wednesday, October 25, 2013 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  Prior to the Annual Conference is the Trustees Masters Program (TMP), which will be held on Saturday, October 21 and Sunday, October 22 and the New Trustees Institute, which will be held from Saturday, October 21 through Monday, October 23.

Trustees Masters Program (TMP)
The Trustees Masters Program (TMP) is the pinnacle event for advanced level trustee networking and education. It is designed to build on trustees’ existing knowledge base and experience through peer exchange and group exercises over an intensive two days.  Cary Franklin and Aruna Vohra are leading sessions during the Trustees Masters Program.

Cary Franklin

Using Fund Professionals Wisely
Saturday | 10:15 a.m.-12:30 p.m.
 
Future Challenges
Sunday | 8:00-8:30 a.m.
 
Case Studies
Sunday | 8:30-11:30 a.m.
 
Open Forum/Wrap-Up Questions
Sunday | 3:30-4:00 p.m.

Aruna Vohra
Future Challenges
Sunday | 8:00-8:30 a.m.

Case Studies
Sunday | 8:30-11:30 a.m.
 
Open Forum/Wrap-Up Questions
Sunday | 3:30-4:00 p.m.

New Trustees Institute - Level I and II
Developed by trustees for trustees, New Trustees Institute - Level 1: Core Concepts lays the groundwork for those new to health, pension or other Taft-Hartley multiemployer benefit funds. Trustees will hear from several different multiemployer practitioners, including accountants, actuaries, attorneys, administrators and other trustees, who will explain the need-to-know basics of fiduciary responsibility and trust fund management.

Level II: Concepts in Practice explores how the concepts introduced in Level I apply to trust fund management. Developed by experienced multiemployer fund trustees, administrators and advisors, this institute provides the practical information a trustee needs to know. Mary Ann Dunleavy, Kevin Culp, and Stephanie Patrick are leading sessions during the New Trustees Institute -Level II.

Mary Ann Dunleavy | Kevin Culp
Governance/Administration
Saturday | 8:00-10:00 a.m.
 
Investments
Saturday | 1:00-5:00 p.m.
 
Retirement
Sunday | 8:00-11:30 a.m.

Stephanie Patrick
Health Plans
Sunday | 12:15-4:00 p.m.

Annual Conference Sessions

Ben Ablin
I10 | Concepts in Advanced Asset Allocation

Topics: Overview of return assumptions | Why review them now? | Explore how return assumptions are selected | What are the factors to consider? | Asset allocation strategies | Trends and landscape of return assumptions | Review different samples of risk and return scenarios
1: Monday | 10:45 a.m.-12:00 noon
2: Tuesday | 7:30-8:45 a.m.

Tom Cliffel
P10 | Alternative Plan Designs in the Multiemployer Community – The Risk Spectrum
Topics: Explore various alternative plan design features, and discover: Where do they fall on the risk spectrum? | What goals/objectives do they meet? | How is funding impacted? | How are benefits affected? | What is the communication messaging?
1: Monday | 10:45 a.m.-12:00 noon
2: Tuesday | 7:30-8:45 a.m.

Mary Ann Dunleavy
G12 | Working Effectively With Your A-Team (Attorney/Accountant/Administrator/Actuary)
Participate in this interactive, fast-moving panel, and take home a tip or two for your fund. Topics: What are some effective methods/practices in using your A-team? | How do you ensure cross communication, and why? | What can happen when communication is siloed?
1: Monday | 10:45 a.m.-12:00 noon
2: Tuesday | 1:15-2:30 p.m.
 
Cary Franklin
P1 | Managing Pension Risk and Plan Maturity
Topics: How is pension risk measured? | Managing risk through: Plan design: Do alternative designs help? | Funding policy: How much cushion is appropriate? | Investment policy: When is derisking appropriate? | Risk associated with mature plans: managing plan maturity
1: Monday | 9:15-10:30 a.m.
2: Tuesday | 9:00-10:15 a.m.
 
G15 | The Multiemployer Plan Landscape – A Survey of 5500 Data
This session will highlight research from the International Foundation and Horizon Actuarial Services, looking at the universe of multiemployer health, pension and retirement plans. Highlights will include a multiyear look at: Plan funding | Plan investments | Demographics | Health benefit costs | Plan cash flows
Tuesday | 2:45-4:00 p.m.

Stan Goldfarb
P02 | PBGC Solvency and Solutions

Topics: Where are premiums headed? | Are there other options that can be considered? | What tools are needed to make the PBGC viable? | Old pool and new pool withdrawal liability | Shrinking union workforce and contribution base
1: Monday | 1:30-2:45 p.m.
2: Tuesday | 2:45-4:00 p.m.

Stephanie Patrick
H17 | How to Assess the Financial Status of Your Health Fund
Topics: What can multiyear projections tell you? | Considerations/sensitivities | Use of a dashboard and key statistics | Asset levels and funding goals | Regular monitoring
Monday | 10:45 a.m.-12:00 noon
 
G15 | The Multiemployer Plan Landscape – A Survey of 5500 Data
This session will highlight research from the International Foundation and Horizon Actuarial Services, looking at the universe of multiemployer health, pension and retirement plans. Highlights will include a multiyear look at: Plan funding | Plan investments | Demographics | Health benefit costs | Plan cash flows
Tuesday | 2:45-4:00 p.m.

Aruna Vohra
H25 | Emerging Trends in Health Care
Topics: Pharmacogenetic testing: What is it? How is it used? Limitations and coverage | On-site or near-site clinics; patient-centered medical homes: Prevalence, Cost savings, Does it really manage disease? | Infusion centers | Mentoring programs | Functional medicine: a new wave of practice? What does that mean for coverage?
1: Monday | 3:00-4:15 p.m.
2: Tuesday | 1:15-2:30 p.m.
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​In Memory of Brian Dailey
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